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Does overconfidence increase productivity?

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“…overconfidence is a significant factor in increasing productivity.”

Recent studies report that productivity increases under tournament reward structures than under piece rate reward structures. We conduct maze-solving experiments under both reward structures and reveal that overconfidence is a significant factor in increasing productivity. Specifically, subjects exhibiting progressively higher degrees of overconfidence solve more mazes. This result shows a positive aspect of overconfidence, which usually has been examined in its negative aspect as an expectation bias.

Source: “Overconfidence Increases Productivity” from ISER Discussion Paper #0814.

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