Can you play the stock market just based on knowledge of human behavior?

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It would be an interesting experiment to try. The vast majority of people are going off bad information, irrational hunches and specious theories anyway, so why not?

  • Is it sunny out? Awesome. “…stock trades from 26 exchanges around the world between 1982 and 1997 showed that profits were up 24.8% on unseasonably sunny days compared to cloudy days. Unseasonably sunny weather appears to elicit positive affect, which is then reflected in positive judgments.”
  • Sales of sex toys can be an economic indicator: “Market research in 2009 found that sales of lubricants and sexual-enhancement devices were rocketing in the recession… people need a cheap way to feel good in hard times (either that or they need a way to get hard in hard times).”
  • How is that soccer team doing? It could affect your portfolio. Did you country win the bid to host the Winter Olympic Games? Sell.
  • And as for your own behavior, never watch porn when you trade stocks. Bad idea.

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